Friday, April 19, 2013

Variance, you crazy bitch

Written Sunday, April 14th, 2013

Yesterday I played pretty much all day, split up between the Rock and the Wynn.  Lost $70.  Based on that number, you could assume that not much happened throughout the day.  You would definitely be wrong.

I was up $380 at the Rock when I cashed out.  Ran really good.

Hand 1 : Set vs... what?

I raise in early position with pocket tens to something like $10.  Get a couple calls.  Flop is 10-6-x, all hearts.  I bet out $20, get called by the old guy to my immediate left.  Turn is an offsuit king.  I bet out $35, he calls again.  River is an offsuit deuce.

At this point, I just have no idea what this guy can have.  Slowplaying a flush?  I don't know.  Ace high flush draw?  If so, I'm not going to get much value on the river.  It was hard deciding what to bet because I couldn't put him on anything.  Eventually I just hoped he had a king or something and could call.  I bet out $75 on the river and he called.  He flopped a set of sixes and lost the minimum, although I wouldn't say he played it well.  Crazy though that I didn't get his whole stack.  Either way, good pot.

Hand 2 : Min-raise this!

I raise with T-9 suited to $8, probably in early position because I'm playing way too loose.  Get called by an old lady and someone else.  Flop comes out ace high with no draws.  Like A-6-2 or something.  I lead the flop for $16.  Old lady raises me to $32.

What can this raise mean?  I doubt she has a set, probably would just slowplay it.  Probably has a weakish ace.  Overall I just didn't feel like it felt like strength, so I decided I was going to try to raise her off of her hand.

I make it $80.  She says that's what I thought, I wanted to see where you were at, etc, and folds pocket queens face up.  I flip up the 10-9, no pair no draw.

Hand 3 : Please call...

I raise with J-7 of hearts.  I get it - probably not great.  Same old lady calls me.  Flop is good though, Q-9-8 with 2 hearts.  Gutshot with a heart draw.  I bet $20, she calls me.  Turn is a heart, boom.  I bet $40, she calls again.

River is a brick.  She has about $200 left.  I thought about it and decided to just go for it, and hopefully she would call me because I bluffed her earlier.  I say "all in", and move out two stacks of red.  Then I just sit there.  She thinks and thinks... grabs her chips like she's going to push them in, trying to get a read on me, says "I KNOW I have you beat...", and finally folds.  :(   I still think the bet was good and if she just had something a bit stronger she could have called.  The ironic part is that no matter what she had, if she was bluff catching me her actual hand strength was irrelevant.  If she had pocket aces, top two pair, probably second pair, it's all the same.  If she thought I was bluffing she should have called.

So I ran really good at the Rock and ended up winning $380.  Then I went over to the Wynn.

Hand 4 : Kings

I limp with kings under the gun in the 1/3 game at Wynn.  Not standard and I would normally not do this.  However, the guy to my left was a recreational player that was drinking heavily and just went into the parking lot to smoke weed with this other guy, and he was talking about leaving in just a couple hands.  So I was hoping he might implode and just go nuts raising the next couple hands or whatever.  So I limp.

This girl raises to $15.  Sweet.  Not the person I was hoping to go against, but that's OK.  Another guy calls.  Comes back to me, $60.  Folds to her.  She says "All in" and slides her money out.  She had about $70 in red and a bill.  Comes back to me, whatever, I call.

Board runs out A-6-x-10-x.  I'm sitting there waiting to see her hand.  She says, "I think I got lucky", and flips up 6-6.  Flopped a set.  UGHHHHHH.  She says, "Maybe I was ahead the whole way" to which I replied, "I don't think so" in disgust.  She had about $170, so the pot was about $400 or so total.

Hand 5 : Aces

I raise to 11 in early position with A-A.  Couple folds, and the next guy makes it $25.  Perfect.  I'm hoping to trap some people in the middle and reraise.  Unfortunately nobody else calls.  The guy has a bill and maybe 100-ish chips.  I ask how many bills he has, and he slides them around and I can see he actually has 2 bills.  Awesome.

I reraise to $80 and wait.  To my delight, he quickly says "All in!" and I say "call".  He flips up K-K, and I flip up A-A.  Pretty much the situation you are hoping for all day in a NL cash game.

Flop comes out and it's terrible.  A-J-10 with 2 diamonds.  He has a diamond, and he immediately doubled his outs with the gutshot.  Turn is a diamond and I'm like omg... this board is getting ridiculous.  lol.  River, diamond.  Ship it.  I ask how much he has, $343 total.  I count it out, say "peace, I'm out" and grab my remaining $150 and leave.

Overall on the day I only lost $70.  Not bad.  I obviously ran great the rest of the day to balance out those two pots that totaled $1100.  So sick though.  I was a 80% favorite in both, so overall I was running behind expectation $880 in those two pots.  Yes, I had some other hands where I could have gotten drawn out on so you can't really count it, but still.  Those were pretty bad.

No comments:

Post a Comment