March retrospective

I think I'm going to go back to playing NL, so I might go back and continue to recap the weeks of hands that I have recorded.  For today though I wanted to go back and give you some insight into the last full month I played.  So here is a report of my poker progress (or lack thereof) in March.  In March, I played 97 hours of live poker.

I won $500 in tournaments.  Played two tournaments, and as far as my bankroll was concerned they were freerolls.  If I had paid entry into both, I would actually be up more.  I think I won about $1100 in one, nothing in the other, and both were $125 entries at Binion's.  Personally I want to stay away from tournaments.  I don't feel like I'm that great at them, there's a TON of variance, and also I feel like you have to tip WAY too much when you win.  Online tournaments are great.  Rake is low, zero tip, you can play a ton so it kills the variance.  But live, it is really tough.  They take forever, they rake the shit out of them, and when you win you are expected to tip.  So this month my wife wanted to play some and she offered me a deal where she would pay for the tournaments and I would give her half of what I win.  So I did it.  I realize I'm essentially giving myself that "deal", but whatever.  I'm thinking of my bankroll as a separate player from my own life, so it makes sense in those terms.  :-)

Cash games were not as good.  I lost $1217 overall in cash games in March.  I actually lost $1518 playing NL hold 'em cash.  At limit hold 'em, I won $557.  And I lost the other $300-ish playing 1 session of high-only 4/8 limit Omaha at Boulder Station - just a freak gambling game where everyone is freaking AWFUL.  I feel like that game is a gold mine but I haven't been able to capitalize.

I did have some tough hands this month.  Actually let me get into them right here.  These are the two worst hands I had last month.  Not trying to tell bad beat stories here, but I am trying to figure out where all of my money went this month.  :P

Golden Nugget 1/2 NL - Sunday, March 10th
I sit down at the Nugget 1/2 game.  Game looks pretty good.  LOT of money on the table.  Couple older African-American guys with a ton of chips (just mentioning it because it's a little rare), lot of other guys with a bunch of chips.  Just old guys, who you would expect to see at the Nugget.  First hand or two, good action.  I'm excited and ready to go.  I bought in for $500.  There is no cap on the buy-in at the Nugget, which I love.

An older guy I have seen at the Nugget before makes it $12.  I'm in middle position with A-A.  I reraise to $36.  Older black guy calls and says something to the effect of "I'm going to crack your aces".  lol.  The other guy calls too.  Pot is getting pretty big for a 1/2 game, already over $100.  Flop comes J-J-5.

The original preflop raiser checks.  I bet $75.  The black guy folds.  Now I get check-raised to $225.

I think what screwed me here... I was trying to think about it.  Honestly I can't think of any reason I didn't fold.  I know what I was thinking at the time, and I can tell you.  I thought, this guy probably wouldn't raise in early position with a jack.  And he could easily have Q-Q or K-K here. And I also thought, I basically have to go all-in or fold here (which is true).

I go all-in.  He snap calls.  Turn blank, river jack.  He turns over the A-J.  I ship a $1000+ pot over to some old moron who probably doesn't play creatively at all ever.  Then I make the walk of shame.  I would normally have brought $1200+, but I ended up only bringing $700.  WTF.  That's not enough for me to continue, so I walk out and drive home.  I played literally 3 hands.  I spent probably 3x the time driving that day than I did playing.  It was a horrible day for me.

In retrospect, it's a bad move.  I hesitate to say "obviously" a bad move because when it's the heat of the moment, things get blurry and it's hard to figure out what's obvious and what is not.  But let's look at the facts.  What could he potentially be raising me with?

First off, could he be bluffing ever?  No.  Simply no.  End of story, no discussion needed.  So this is a value raise 100% of the time.  ZERO bluff chance EVER.  ZERO.

What hands could he be potentially value raising with?  There is no flush draw (I don't think anyway, but semi-bluffing a flush draw there for so much money seems impossible anyway).  So I figure he could have one of these hands : J-J, 5-5, Q-Q, K-K, A-J, A-A, maybe Q-J or K-J or J-T.    Let's say he wouldn't raise up front with K-J, Q-J, J-T to take those out of his range.

Now what about the hands I actually beat?  Q-Q and K-K.  And would this old guy check-raise with those hands?  No way.  He would be way too scared that I had pocket aces, or just would have an unreasonable fear of a jack.  He would check-call.

It's so obvious now, but it was just one of those situations where I made an awful decision in the heat of the moment.  Worst hand all month.

Wynn 1/3 NL - Friday, March 15th

Won a little money earlier in the day, then went to dinner.  Came back to this hand.

I have 2-2 in the big blind.  Guy raises to $20 and he doesn't have a ton left, maybe $80.  However, two people call and they both have big stacks.  So I decide to call.  Flop is pretty much exactly what I was hoping for : 9-7-2 with 2 clubs.  I bet out $55.  The short stack goes all-in.  Now the big stack guy raises to $160.  I reraise all-in (started with $500).  He calls, 9-9, lights out.

I don't really think there is much to be learned from this one.  Can I get away from that?  I don't think so.  What can I do, call and shove any safe (non-club) turn?  Even if it comes a 9 or 7, it would have been better to get it in on the flop if he had 9-7.  I was hating life after this hand, but whatever.  I think this is just a cooler and there's not much I can do.

Realistically what is the guy making it $160 with though?  A big overpair?  I don't know.  Might just call.  So he could have 7-7, 9-9, maybe A-K of clubs if he was getting a little nuts, maybe a straight flush draw.  If I put him on AKcc, 99, 77, 86cc, T8cc, I only have 24% equity and should fold.  If I add AA and JTcc, I'm up to 50%.  So I guess it really depends on whether I think someone would do that with a big overpair or not.  I don't know.  It's possible.  Tough situation, I'd love to hear your opinion on it.

So if you just look at those two hands, that's 2/3 of the money I lost last month.  One was a huge mistake, the other was (maybe) a cooler.  I'm going to get back into the NL game this month starting today, and hopefully things turn around.  I also had a pretty bad run at Venetian where I ran way behind expectation that I can probably post more about as well later.

For now though, time to jump in the shower and get back on the tables!  It's a new month.  The WSOP is on the way and I have also been thinking that if I can get my bankroll up to $3000 or more, maybe I'll take a big shot this year and play a $1000 bracelet event.  It's a total crapshoot but I might as well take a shot at it once a year.