Red Rock - Sunday July 14th, $1/$2 NL Hold 'Em
Went back the next day and was ready to play. My wife stayed home and my goal was just to get about 3 hours of play in.
Overall the session did not go well. I didn't run especially well, but as I said in the last blog, I think I'm playing too passive as well. Falling into the trap that you see all old guy falling into. Playing too safe, under the guise of "I want to keep my variance down" or "I'm trapping everyone" or whatever it might be. I'm going to change that in the next session and play the WPT Boot Camp style again for sure. Win or lose it's better than what I did this weekend.
Hand 1 : I limp in with 3-3 in early position. Late position guy with a mountain of chips makes it $10. I call, and we see the flop 4 ways. Flop is Q-9-5 and it checks around. Turn is a 5, check around again. River, 3. Boom. I bet out $30, everyone folds.
Probably should have bet less. I was hoping (as I often do) to bet bigger and make it look like a bluff. But I don't know how well that's going to work in a situation where nobody has shown any interest in winning this pot. Probably should have just bet $15. Or even $8, hoping to induce a bluff raise or something. But $30 was just too much especially when nobody showed any interest in the pot, and nothing interesting hit on the river.
Hand 2 : Raise A-10 of clubs in early position (probably should just fold). Button makes it $40, I fold.
Hand 3 : I raise to $10 with 9-9 in early position. (Lot of early position hands, I'm noticing.) The big stack from hand 1 calls me. Flop comes 8-8-6. I bet out $15, he calls. Turn is a 7, giving me an open end straight draw and bringing backdoor spades. I bet $25. He raises me $40 more. I call. River is an ace. I check, he bets $65, I fold.
Overall I think I played this one OK. On the turn when he raises me, I'm getting 3.5 to 1 on my call. If I think all of my outs are good (8 straight outs, 2 full house outs) then I think I can definitely call. I also thought he could have had a draw or something, although he insta-raised me on the turn which seemed strong. Like there was nothing to think about - raise. The ace on the river really changed nothing, but I thought about it for a while and just figured it was much more likely that he had a strong hand than a bluff, and I folded. He didn't look particularly scared, and his actions suggested strength for sure.
Hand 4 : Guy raises to $11 in early position. 3 people call. I look down at Q-5 offsuit in the blind. I decide, thats a lot of dead money out there if I can get through the initial raiser. Unfortunately, that's where my thought process ended. I hadn't really seen this guy play that many hands. I raise to $50. He reraises all-in for $150 more, I fold. Yes, this one was pretty sketchy.
Hand 5 : New old guy at the table raises to $10. I reraise to $25 with J-J. He reraises again, just grabs a stack and puts it out there, probably $65+ more to call. I fold face up.
Hand 6 : VERY next hand I have Q-Q and raise to $15 after a couple limpers. Get 4 callers. Flop is A-J-x. 3 checks to me, and I bet $45. The blind calls. Turn is a king and we both check, and I give up on the blank river. A-2 offsuit takes it down.
Hand 7 : I raise with A-Q to $10 in middle position and a guy in position calls me. Flop is 9-8-5 with 2 clubs. Not the best flop. I bet $12, he calls. Turn is a 7, I give up, he bets $30 and takes it down.
Hand 8 : At this point I'm frustrated and planning on leaving when the blind hits me. I limp with 7-7 in early position. Couple others call, and this guy goes all-in out of the blind for $47. He had done this a ton of times before, like a bunch of hands in a row. However, he had not done it in quite a while, maybe an hour, and I neglected to acknowledge that fact. So out of frustration for whatever reason, I call. Everyone else folds. Flop is Q-J-x. Turn 7. Boom. Flip up the 7-7. River blank. He flips up pocket kings and walks away from the table. Haha. But it really just made me feel even worse about how I played. I got out of that one, but it was another bad call. And I should NOT be putting that much in preflop with 7-7 like that.
Overall, I think I ran pretty bad and didn't get much going with the hands I did have. However, my wife pointed out that on the Q-Q hand if I was playing the WPT Boot Camp style I would have just checked the flop and saved that money. And the Q-5 raise was not a good play. If I knew the guy was really loose, like if the big stack raised, maybe it would have been a great idea. But this tight guy raises and I reraise out of the blind, that's not a good idea. And then the 7-7 hand was a disaster. So overall I was not happy with how I played.
As I said in the last blog, I'm going back to the WPT Boot Camp style for my next session. Wish me luck! Oh, and I lost $250 this time. Not going well for my first couple sessions back, but I'll get it going.
Thursday, July 18, 2013
Tuesday, July 16, 2013
First session back
Red Rock, Saturday, July 13th - $1/$2 NL Hold'em
Went up to the Rock tonight and played for a little over 3 hours. This was my first NL session in a long time.
Overall it was pretty slow. The table was fine, nothing special though. Lot of regulars, although I don't think they are particularly good. I played super tight the whole time. A little passive in a couple hands too. Maybe it was a mistake, although I thought I had valid reasons for both hands where I played a little too passive. But it's up for debate.
Hand 1 : I limp with 6-5 of clubs in the cutoff. My wife raises on the button to 7. 3 people call and I call. Flop comes A-10-3 with 3 clubs. Boom, I flop a flush. Checks to me and I check. I'm thinking I'll let her bet and I'll trap some additional people in there, and put in a big raise. Unfortunately she checks.
Turn is another ace. The blind bets out $10. One guy calls, and I call. I definitely could raise, but I figure this guy has an ace. And the other guy either has an ace or something like the king of clubs. So I'll see a river, and I can figure out what to do next since I'm in position. If it's a club I can just fold. Otherwise maybe I can raise the river and get value from an ace. I've under-repped my hand for sure.
River is a king. The blind bets out $10 again. Now the next guy raises to $55.
I thought about it for a bit and called. The blind folded. This guy has A-10. Flopped top two, turned a boat. I feel like this one is just a cooler, although maybe I could get away from it. Not sure. I think I pretty much just have to call since I under-represented my hand so much. But at the same time, what is this guy raising with? Maybe an ace, especially since the guy bet so small. So I guess it's OK. But I don't know if most people are raising the river just with A-J or A-9 there.
Hand 2: Limped J8s on the button after 4 limpers. Flop 10-9-4. Guy bets out 10 in early position, I call. Turn is an ace. He checks, I check. River I miss, he checks and I check. He had 9-8.
This one was pretty weak. I could have raised the flop, but I was OK with just calling. On the turn though, after the guy checks, I think I really have to bet. I was trying to just lose as little as possible, but a bet of $17-$20 on the turn would likely take it down. And if he calls, I can still hit. Seems really unlikely he would be check-raising. So that was not good.
Hand 3 : I get pocket jacks on the button. My wife raises to $10 to my left. I decide to just call. I would raise pretty much everyone else, so that is a mistake already. 3 others call. Flop comes Q-9-x, it checks to me, and I check. Turn is a jack. Boom. One guy checks, lady bets $20. Folds to me. I decide to just call. River is a king. First guy leads for $50, lady calls, I fold. They have 9-10 and Q-10 respectively.
In retrospect, there's really no good reason to not raise that turn. At the time I was thinking I'll just slowplay a bit, and hopefully trap her for another bet on the river. The board wasn't super scary. And if she checks to me on the river, I can bet big and maybe get her to call. I had seen her snap off a bluff with a really weak hand earlier (snap off - more like make a terrible call and get lucky) so I figured she might do that with me too. But I don't even know if I thought that at the time or not.
Overall, at the time I thought I played this session fine. However, in retrospect I can see I'm just playing really passive even with my big hands, which is not great. In this situation I probably saved money, but that doesn't mean I played them right.
Talking to my wife about it this weekend, I think I'm going to go back to the WPT Boot Camp style of play that I was using for a while. There are some minor modifications I think I'd like to make to it, but overall I WAS winning playing that style. Even though I had some big downswings, I also had some huge sessions.
Lost $75 this session. I'll report about the next one soon!
I'm going to try to go back to my Tuesday/Thursday blog schedule while I'm playing a lot. I'm definitely going to get some more sessions in next weekend, and I have another blog lined up for Thursday already. Enjoy!
Went up to the Rock tonight and played for a little over 3 hours. This was my first NL session in a long time.
Overall it was pretty slow. The table was fine, nothing special though. Lot of regulars, although I don't think they are particularly good. I played super tight the whole time. A little passive in a couple hands too. Maybe it was a mistake, although I thought I had valid reasons for both hands where I played a little too passive. But it's up for debate.
Hand 1 : I limp with 6-5 of clubs in the cutoff. My wife raises on the button to 7. 3 people call and I call. Flop comes A-10-3 with 3 clubs. Boom, I flop a flush. Checks to me and I check. I'm thinking I'll let her bet and I'll trap some additional people in there, and put in a big raise. Unfortunately she checks.
Turn is another ace. The blind bets out $10. One guy calls, and I call. I definitely could raise, but I figure this guy has an ace. And the other guy either has an ace or something like the king of clubs. So I'll see a river, and I can figure out what to do next since I'm in position. If it's a club I can just fold. Otherwise maybe I can raise the river and get value from an ace. I've under-repped my hand for sure.
River is a king. The blind bets out $10 again. Now the next guy raises to $55.
I thought about it for a bit and called. The blind folded. This guy has A-10. Flopped top two, turned a boat. I feel like this one is just a cooler, although maybe I could get away from it. Not sure. I think I pretty much just have to call since I under-represented my hand so much. But at the same time, what is this guy raising with? Maybe an ace, especially since the guy bet so small. So I guess it's OK. But I don't know if most people are raising the river just with A-J or A-9 there.
Hand 2: Limped J8s on the button after 4 limpers. Flop 10-9-4. Guy bets out 10 in early position, I call. Turn is an ace. He checks, I check. River I miss, he checks and I check. He had 9-8.
This one was pretty weak. I could have raised the flop, but I was OK with just calling. On the turn though, after the guy checks, I think I really have to bet. I was trying to just lose as little as possible, but a bet of $17-$20 on the turn would likely take it down. And if he calls, I can still hit. Seems really unlikely he would be check-raising. So that was not good.
Hand 3 : I get pocket jacks on the button. My wife raises to $10 to my left. I decide to just call. I would raise pretty much everyone else, so that is a mistake already. 3 others call. Flop comes Q-9-x, it checks to me, and I check. Turn is a jack. Boom. One guy checks, lady bets $20. Folds to me. I decide to just call. River is a king. First guy leads for $50, lady calls, I fold. They have 9-10 and Q-10 respectively.
In retrospect, there's really no good reason to not raise that turn. At the time I was thinking I'll just slowplay a bit, and hopefully trap her for another bet on the river. The board wasn't super scary. And if she checks to me on the river, I can bet big and maybe get her to call. I had seen her snap off a bluff with a really weak hand earlier (snap off - more like make a terrible call and get lucky) so I figured she might do that with me too. But I don't even know if I thought that at the time or not.
Overall, at the time I thought I played this session fine. However, in retrospect I can see I'm just playing really passive even with my big hands, which is not great. In this situation I probably saved money, but that doesn't mean I played them right.
Talking to my wife about it this weekend, I think I'm going to go back to the WPT Boot Camp style of play that I was using for a while. There are some minor modifications I think I'd like to make to it, but overall I WAS winning playing that style. Even though I had some big downswings, I also had some huge sessions.
Lost $75 this session. I'll report about the next one soon!
I'm going to try to go back to my Tuesday/Thursday blog schedule while I'm playing a lot. I'm definitely going to get some more sessions in next weekend, and I have another blog lined up for Thursday already. Enjoy!
Saturday, July 13, 2013
What I'm thinking before I get back into it
Things going through my head before I get back into poker this time around:
Play SUPER tight
It's going to suck and be boring, but I need to really lock it down preflop. I have just been getting into too many dicey situations post-flop and making mistakes, and those mistakes put me on tilt. So I need to just play as few hands as possible and hope I can hit something over the course of the session.
AND, when I do play hands, I need to make sure I can get away from them after the flop or on the turn if it gets bad. I know that's always a big problem for people when they play super tight. You play tight for hours, get A-K, and just lose a monster pot because you don't see the warning signs.
Try to stay cool, have no monetary expectations, and let the game come to me
It's very possible I'll lose. That happens all the time. And I might sit down and go down a bunch right away. You never know. I just need to deal with it and not let it affect me. When the session is over that's the only time the money in front of you counts. I guess even then it really doesn't matter if you are thinking about it all as one long session. So I just need to stay cool.
Treat everyone else as robots or trees or a video poker machine
Other people are going to crush, even if they don't deserve the winnings. And other people are going to get hit with the deck CONSTANTLY. I might see someone go on the sickest run ever today. They will be laughing it up, thinking they are the shit, and so on. I need to just ignore that. Everyone else at the table isn't even a real person. When I sit down, I'm immersed in this crazy game where things happen outside of my control. The only thing I can do is try to play my hands well.
Low variance
Back to the playing super tight angle, I'm going to try to take lines that reduce my variance. I think that might not overall be the most profitable (although it might be for me). The one thing it should do is cut down on my tilt when I lose a bunch of hands.
Post-session analysis
I am going to rate myself either an A, C, or F on three factors for each session:
- How well I ran (luck factor - am I hitting flushes? Am I hitting flops in general? Am I getting drawn out on?)
- How good my cards were preflop in general (did I get a lot of big pocket pairs / AK?)
- How well I think I played overall (did I make good decisions?)
I'm hoping the dollar value of my session correlates mostly to how well I ran and how good my cards were, and in each session I can honestly say I played well. Of course, it's going to take some additional analysis to determine if I'm actually playing well or not. And I need to try to be as objective as possible.
Wish me luck! I think we are going to play 1/2 at Red Rock tonight (although we might go elsewhere). My mission is to play as well as I can and really think about my decisions, and ignore how much I'm up or down during the session. Easier said than done, but I will try my best. I'm not drinking, I have had a long break, and I feel focused and capable of doing this. Let's do it.
Thursday, July 11, 2013
2 months later...
July 11th, 2013 - 11:30 PM
I've been trapped in a drunken haze and have just recently awaken from it. I am getting ready to play some serious poker again.
Poker was going great this year. Played 1/2 and 1/3, won, moved up to 2/5. Got crushed a little bit. Started drinking (unrelated to my poker losses of course). Kept playing, played fucking stupid, got crushed some more. Lose lose lose, and stopped playing serious poker.
The last couple months, the only poker I've played has been blackout drunk 2/4 limit poker at Suncoast. Pretty close to our house so the cab ride + tip was only about $20. Won some, lost some. Didn't really care. I was starting to think (yet again) that the poker career was over.
Recently though, my wife started talking us both out of drinking. We need to quit forever, again. So we have made that commitment and I haven't drank anything in about a week. Not a long time, but I'm feeling good about it. Mind you, if we hadn't quit I probably would have drank about 5 days (at least), maybe all 7. And each day, 10+ drinks. 10 is SUPER low on our really hard partying days.
Anyway, forget that. I'm back. I've been listening to a ton of poker podcasts and getting my mind right. I know I need to put hours in. And furthermore, I think I need to respect the dollars more this time around. Play premium hands. Sometimes I won't get paid. That's fine. A lot of the time, I won't hit the board and I'll have to give up. That's fine too. I'll still play aggressive when I'm in. But I bet I could cut down to 25% of the hands I was playing before, or even less. And I think it's pretty fair to limp (or not play at all) a lot of the hands I would have come in for a raise with before.
For example, 87s in the cutoff when nobody is in yet. There is $3 or $4 in the pot. Does it really makes sense for me to put in $10-$12 to win that, and start playing a pot I'm not going to be comfortable in? Heads up pot, miss the flop, c-bet, get called, and then what? Furthermore, I think doing stuff like that just puts me on tilt.
The WPT boot camp strategy was pretty good. However, I think I can cut out some things. Calling raises for up to 5% of my stack with suited gappers - why. Maybe limp after limpers. But is 7-4 suited really worth calling $6 even when we are both $300 behind? What happens, I flop a flush draw, he bets, I make it $40? Why not just fold and wait for a better spot preflop? And also, raising so much even in position. 30% or more of my hands in the cutoff or on the button? I could trim that WAY down and not lose much, I don't think.
Just tight tight tight. Wait for great hands and capitalize. Protect the stack otherwise. I had been playing super aggressive, and in some cases decent poker. But I think playing so loose blinded me and also put me on super tilt when I wasn't winning. Making it $150 preflop with A-Q in some spots - why? Fold. Why be a hero, at a fucking 1/2 game?
Yeah you feel stupid playing that tight, like all of these old guys. But they are making mistakes too. They are playing somewhat tight, and definitely passive, but they are limping in out of position. They are making mistakes. Maybe they are protecting their stack pretty well, but I can protect mine better. It's slow money, but it's money. Let's collect it and level up past 1/2 to 2/5.
Or as my wife suggested, set aside some winnings each month for a big tournament fund. Like every month if I win over $1000, put $1000 into a WSOP Main Event fund. And then when I get $10,000, even if it takes me 2, 3, 10 years - when that sucker comes around, register and roll the dice. Win that mother fucker.
Off to bed. Expect to see some more poker posts from me soon. And if all goes according to plan, expect to see a smarter, tighter player show up at the tables in the coming months.
I've been trapped in a drunken haze and have just recently awaken from it. I am getting ready to play some serious poker again.
Poker was going great this year. Played 1/2 and 1/3, won, moved up to 2/5. Got crushed a little bit. Started drinking (unrelated to my poker losses of course). Kept playing, played fucking stupid, got crushed some more. Lose lose lose, and stopped playing serious poker.
The last couple months, the only poker I've played has been blackout drunk 2/4 limit poker at Suncoast. Pretty close to our house so the cab ride + tip was only about $20. Won some, lost some. Didn't really care. I was starting to think (yet again) that the poker career was over.
Recently though, my wife started talking us both out of drinking. We need to quit forever, again. So we have made that commitment and I haven't drank anything in about a week. Not a long time, but I'm feeling good about it. Mind you, if we hadn't quit I probably would have drank about 5 days (at least), maybe all 7. And each day, 10+ drinks. 10 is SUPER low on our really hard partying days.
Anyway, forget that. I'm back. I've been listening to a ton of poker podcasts and getting my mind right. I know I need to put hours in. And furthermore, I think I need to respect the dollars more this time around. Play premium hands. Sometimes I won't get paid. That's fine. A lot of the time, I won't hit the board and I'll have to give up. That's fine too. I'll still play aggressive when I'm in. But I bet I could cut down to 25% of the hands I was playing before, or even less. And I think it's pretty fair to limp (or not play at all) a lot of the hands I would have come in for a raise with before.
For example, 87s in the cutoff when nobody is in yet. There is $3 or $4 in the pot. Does it really makes sense for me to put in $10-$12 to win that, and start playing a pot I'm not going to be comfortable in? Heads up pot, miss the flop, c-bet, get called, and then what? Furthermore, I think doing stuff like that just puts me on tilt.
The WPT boot camp strategy was pretty good. However, I think I can cut out some things. Calling raises for up to 5% of my stack with suited gappers - why. Maybe limp after limpers. But is 7-4 suited really worth calling $6 even when we are both $300 behind? What happens, I flop a flush draw, he bets, I make it $40? Why not just fold and wait for a better spot preflop? And also, raising so much even in position. 30% or more of my hands in the cutoff or on the button? I could trim that WAY down and not lose much, I don't think.
Just tight tight tight. Wait for great hands and capitalize. Protect the stack otherwise. I had been playing super aggressive, and in some cases decent poker. But I think playing so loose blinded me and also put me on super tilt when I wasn't winning. Making it $150 preflop with A-Q in some spots - why? Fold. Why be a hero, at a fucking 1/2 game?
Yeah you feel stupid playing that tight, like all of these old guys. But they are making mistakes too. They are playing somewhat tight, and definitely passive, but they are limping in out of position. They are making mistakes. Maybe they are protecting their stack pretty well, but I can protect mine better. It's slow money, but it's money. Let's collect it and level up past 1/2 to 2/5.
Or as my wife suggested, set aside some winnings each month for a big tournament fund. Like every month if I win over $1000, put $1000 into a WSOP Main Event fund. And then when I get $10,000, even if it takes me 2, 3, 10 years - when that sucker comes around, register and roll the dice. Win that mother fucker.
Off to bed. Expect to see some more poker posts from me soon. And if all goes according to plan, expect to see a smarter, tighter player show up at the tables in the coming months.
Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Hand analyis from this weekend
You can take into account that I was drunk while playing these hands, so my decisions may not have been 100% logical. But I figured I could go back now and do some analysis on these hands to look at what I did and what the optimal play might have been on these hands.
Hand 1 : First hand when I sat down at the table. I bought in for $300. My wife and I could have waited 1 hand and got in for free. However, she decided to buy the button, and I decided to straddle her buying the button. I don't even think that is possible, but they let me do it, and I had to buy the button next hand. :-)
Lady in middle position opens for $20. I've seen her before - middle aged lady, probably playing somewhat tight. She has probably $250. One guy calls in late position, maybe on the button. My wife calls. I look down at A-J. I raise it to $85. Everyone folds, I win. Maybe I'm oversimplifying here, but this seems like a pretty good play.
I think the lady might be raising like AQ+, AJs+, 88+. Maybe looser than that, but let's say that's what she is raising with. 5.88% of hands. That is a REALLY tight range when I look at it percentage-wise. So she might even be opening wider, in fact she probably is, but let's say she is raising only this.
What are the others calling with? It's a 1/3 game and their ranges would be really wide, with a ton of speculative hands. Probably 22-TT, any 2 suited broadway, any suited connector, probably would call instead of raise with AQ. I'm guessing the first person would typically reraise with AK or AA-JJ, but maybe not. Probably AA/KK, maybe not the others. And my wife is getting a decent price so her range is super wide.
I think that the two callers are going to have a SUPER hard time calling my raise, so I'll just assume they basically can never call it (unless the first lady calls). What can she call me with though? She will probably only proceed with AK+, QQ+. I think with pocket jacks she would probably just fold. Even AK she might fold, but let's say she'll call. That is 2.56% of hands.
Actually I just remembered, I have an ace. So that takes away from a lot of combos of AA, AK she can have. I removed those and now she is down to 2.19%. That is a substantial difference, like 15% less combos just with that one ace.
So in the pot was $66 before my bet. I put in $85 to win $66. How often do I have to get people to fold to immediately be profitable?
I don't generally do this kind of math. Let's see. I guess to determine how often I have to win to be immediately profitable, I have to assume that any time they don't fold, I lose. Or I think that works anyway. So it would be something like:
(66 * everyoneFoldsPct) = (-85 * (1 - everyoneFoldsPct))
Is that breakeven? Let's see what that works out to:
85/19. 4.47. What the fuck does that mean? Damn it. I clearly don't know how to do math.
Well, OK, I don't understand how to do the breakeven math. But if my assumptions above are true, she raised with 5.88% of hands, and will call or reraise with 2.19% of hands. So she will call or reraise 37% of the time.
66 * .621 + (-85 * .379) = 10.13
So if my calculations are correct, my move was worth $10.13. Not bad! I think those assumptions are reasonable overall.
Hand 2 : Some guy straddles for 6. There are about 5 limpers. I decide to raise to $40 with 4-2 offsuit. One of the limpers goes all in for $67 more. It folds back to me and I am last to act. Call or fold?
This one was interesting. I thought it would be pretty tough for most people to call a big raise after limping. So I tried to steal with 4-2 offsuit. Granted, this is probably not necessary. But I did it. And again, I was drinking a lot at the time.
So let's say 5 people limped. That's $30 in the pot, plus $6 for the blind. I put in $40, bringing the pot up to $76. Now he goes all-in for $67 more. Call the $40, so the pot is now $116. And put in the additional $67, so the pot is $183. If you want to get technical you can take out the rake (which will be taken out if I call) bringing the pot to $179. And I have to call $67.
I have to win 37% of the time to break even. I called, figuring that if he has two overcards I am getting the right price. But let's see what his range could be and what my equity is.
Even vs AK, I only have 34.1% equity. So it's close but a loser. If I just say any two suited broadway, AJ+, KQ, it's about the same - 33.5% equity. And if I add in 99-55 (assuming he would have open-raised with tens or better, and he might fold 44-22), I'm way worse - 28.3%. So that was not a good call.
Or was it? I flopped a 2, and BOOM, 2 on the turn. Ship it all day. :-) At the time I actually thought this was the right play, so I'm glad I did the research.
Getting tired of this poker talk, so I'm off to bed. See ya!
Hand 1 : First hand when I sat down at the table. I bought in for $300. My wife and I could have waited 1 hand and got in for free. However, she decided to buy the button, and I decided to straddle her buying the button. I don't even think that is possible, but they let me do it, and I had to buy the button next hand. :-)
Lady in middle position opens for $20. I've seen her before - middle aged lady, probably playing somewhat tight. She has probably $250. One guy calls in late position, maybe on the button. My wife calls. I look down at A-J. I raise it to $85. Everyone folds, I win. Maybe I'm oversimplifying here, but this seems like a pretty good play.
I think the lady might be raising like AQ+, AJs+, 88+. Maybe looser than that, but let's say that's what she is raising with. 5.88% of hands. That is a REALLY tight range when I look at it percentage-wise. So she might even be opening wider, in fact she probably is, but let's say she is raising only this.
What are the others calling with? It's a 1/3 game and their ranges would be really wide, with a ton of speculative hands. Probably 22-TT, any 2 suited broadway, any suited connector, probably would call instead of raise with AQ. I'm guessing the first person would typically reraise with AK or AA-JJ, but maybe not. Probably AA/KK, maybe not the others. And my wife is getting a decent price so her range is super wide.
I think that the two callers are going to have a SUPER hard time calling my raise, so I'll just assume they basically can never call it (unless the first lady calls). What can she call me with though? She will probably only proceed with AK+, QQ+. I think with pocket jacks she would probably just fold. Even AK she might fold, but let's say she'll call. That is 2.56% of hands.
Actually I just remembered, I have an ace. So that takes away from a lot of combos of AA, AK she can have. I removed those and now she is down to 2.19%. That is a substantial difference, like 15% less combos just with that one ace.
So in the pot was $66 before my bet. I put in $85 to win $66. How often do I have to get people to fold to immediately be profitable?
I don't generally do this kind of math. Let's see. I guess to determine how often I have to win to be immediately profitable, I have to assume that any time they don't fold, I lose. Or I think that works anyway. So it would be something like:
(66 * everyoneFoldsPct) = (-85 * (1 - everyoneFoldsPct))
Is that breakeven? Let's see what that works out to:
85/19. 4.47. What the fuck does that mean? Damn it. I clearly don't know how to do math.
Well, OK, I don't understand how to do the breakeven math. But if my assumptions above are true, she raised with 5.88% of hands, and will call or reraise with 2.19% of hands. So she will call or reraise 37% of the time.
66 * .621 + (-85 * .379) = 10.13
So if my calculations are correct, my move was worth $10.13. Not bad! I think those assumptions are reasonable overall.
Hand 2 : Some guy straddles for 6. There are about 5 limpers. I decide to raise to $40 with 4-2 offsuit. One of the limpers goes all in for $67 more. It folds back to me and I am last to act. Call or fold?
This one was interesting. I thought it would be pretty tough for most people to call a big raise after limping. So I tried to steal with 4-2 offsuit. Granted, this is probably not necessary. But I did it. And again, I was drinking a lot at the time.
So let's say 5 people limped. That's $30 in the pot, plus $6 for the blind. I put in $40, bringing the pot up to $76. Now he goes all-in for $67 more. Call the $40, so the pot is now $116. And put in the additional $67, so the pot is $183. If you want to get technical you can take out the rake (which will be taken out if I call) bringing the pot to $179. And I have to call $67.
I have to win 37% of the time to break even. I called, figuring that if he has two overcards I am getting the right price. But let's see what his range could be and what my equity is.
Even vs AK, I only have 34.1% equity. So it's close but a loser. If I just say any two suited broadway, AJ+, KQ, it's about the same - 33.5% equity. And if I add in 99-55 (assuming he would have open-raised with tens or better, and he might fold 44-22), I'm way worse - 28.3%. So that was not a good call.
Or was it? I flopped a 2, and BOOM, 2 on the turn. Ship it all day. :-) At the time I actually thought this was the right play, so I'm glad I did the research.
Getting tired of this poker talk, so I'm off to bed. See ya!
Monday, May 20, 2013
Poker energy
I (obviously) haven't been blogging as much about poker lately. I haven't been playing as much poker lately either. Online poker is now here in Nevada, and the novelty has sort of worn off on me already. I was hoping it would be some sick gold mine where I just turn on the computer and watch the number roll up like it was the national debt clock. Unfortunately that hasn't really happened.
I'm not sure if I've written about this or not, but one thing I noticed about my online play is that I'm still WAY overvaluing overpairs. In fact, here is what I think is happening. If you play a game like Starcraft you know that you have units with energy. That energy can be spent on things like cloaking or other special abilities, and it adds up over time. But once you run out, you're out. I feel like I have an energy pool of solid play where I don't overvalue hands. At the start of a session, it is somewhat high, although it probably depends on my mood. If I'm in a good mood and good state of mind, it's high. If I've played 10 days in a row and just feel like "I'm going to grind today" and the only objective on my mind is leaving with more money than I came with, I have an entitlement problem and any losses affect me worse.
So I start with some level of energy. Throughout the session, if I lose a pot or take a bad beat, my energy drops some amount. Bad beats might make it drop more. But at the start of a session, I'm 100% fine in my head. The bad beat just rolls off my back. Haha, I'm fine with it, I'm such a good poker player, this shit doesn't affect me. And if I win pots, my energy meter goes up. Probably goes up a VERY little amount if I win a small pot, goes up a decent amount if I win a huge pot, and honestly it probably goes up a TON if I bad beat someone. Because I fucking LOVE THAT SHIT. Haha. Sometimes if I win a pot where I think I could or should have won WAY more, that might actually take my energy meter down. Like if I make a huge hand but mess up the betting, even if I win my energy might go down. And unlike in Starcraft, I don't think my energy necessarily goes up over time. I don't know that it goes down either. But it might just stay even.
There might be a floor to the energy where it just bottoms out at some level.
So I thought about this for a while. It really makes sense that this is how my brain works and it explains why I can start out playing so good, but eventually lose some giant pots and play stupid. I drew up an example of the graph I'm talking about. Check it out.
This example could have been better for sure, but it more or less shows what I'm talking about. I start my session at 85% max energy or so. Again energy here does not mean physical energy, like I'm somewhat tired. It just means my pool of stored energy I can use to play good poker. I get in there, win a small pot and my energy goes up a bit. Raise AK and miss, and my energy drops just a little. Lose a decent amount with Q-Q where I fold an overpair, and it drops a lot. Then I fold pocket jacks preflop (probably 3-bet it, and fold to a big 4 bet where I'm obviously beat). Great fold on my part, but my energy continues to drop. Now my energy starts slowly declining... time is passing, I'm not winning pots, why the fuck did I even come out to play tonight, I want to win just so I can break even and get out of here, etc. Now I play a flush draw aggressively. Not bad, but aggressive. Maybe I put in a big raise on the flop, get all-in and miss, or maybe I check behind on the turn and miss. Either way I just lost more money than I wanted to with this hand. Please note that I did not play this hand poorly - I just lost it and was not happy about it.
At this point, my energy drops below the "do stupid shit threshold" line. I flop another flush draw. I know I'm not getting odds, but fuck you I call, and I lose again. Then I win some small to medium size pots (maybe playing them well, maybe poorly) and I start to crawl back. But I'm still under the bad play threshold. Now I get in a spot where I raise preflop with K-Q, flop a queen on a pretty dry board, and can't get away from it when a guy raises me for a lot on the turn. Maybe he has J-10 (when if I think about it, he most likely wouldn't play J-10 this way or it's not worth it in the TINY percentage chance he is). So I call, he flopped a set of 3s, and I lose the rest of my money.
If my energy level was above the bad play threshold with the flush draw, I would have just folded. And with the last K-Q hand, I would have known I was beat, and it would have cost me some energy because I would have hated losing, but I would fold there as well. Since I was below the threshold, I ended up losing way more than I needed to with both of these hands.
Things to note about the graph:
I'm not sure if I've written about this or not, but one thing I noticed about my online play is that I'm still WAY overvaluing overpairs. In fact, here is what I think is happening. If you play a game like Starcraft you know that you have units with energy. That energy can be spent on things like cloaking or other special abilities, and it adds up over time. But once you run out, you're out. I feel like I have an energy pool of solid play where I don't overvalue hands. At the start of a session, it is somewhat high, although it probably depends on my mood. If I'm in a good mood and good state of mind, it's high. If I've played 10 days in a row and just feel like "I'm going to grind today" and the only objective on my mind is leaving with more money than I came with, I have an entitlement problem and any losses affect me worse.
So I start with some level of energy. Throughout the session, if I lose a pot or take a bad beat, my energy drops some amount. Bad beats might make it drop more. But at the start of a session, I'm 100% fine in my head. The bad beat just rolls off my back. Haha, I'm fine with it, I'm such a good poker player, this shit doesn't affect me. And if I win pots, my energy meter goes up. Probably goes up a VERY little amount if I win a small pot, goes up a decent amount if I win a huge pot, and honestly it probably goes up a TON if I bad beat someone. Because I fucking LOVE THAT SHIT. Haha. Sometimes if I win a pot where I think I could or should have won WAY more, that might actually take my energy meter down. Like if I make a huge hand but mess up the betting, even if I win my energy might go down. And unlike in Starcraft, I don't think my energy necessarily goes up over time. I don't know that it goes down either. But it might just stay even.
There might be a floor to the energy where it just bottoms out at some level.
So I thought about this for a while. It really makes sense that this is how my brain works and it explains why I can start out playing so good, but eventually lose some giant pots and play stupid. I drew up an example of the graph I'm talking about. Check it out.
 |
| Sample Energy Graph |
At this point, my energy drops below the "do stupid shit threshold" line. I flop another flush draw. I know I'm not getting odds, but fuck you I call, and I lose again. Then I win some small to medium size pots (maybe playing them well, maybe poorly) and I start to crawl back. But I'm still under the bad play threshold. Now I get in a spot where I raise preflop with K-Q, flop a queen on a pretty dry board, and can't get away from it when a guy raises me for a lot on the turn. Maybe he has J-10 (when if I think about it, he most likely wouldn't play J-10 this way or it's not worth it in the TINY percentage chance he is). So I call, he flopped a set of 3s, and I lose the rest of my money.
If my energy level was above the bad play threshold with the flush draw, I would have just folded. And with the last K-Q hand, I would have known I was beat, and it would have cost me some energy because I would have hated losing, but I would fold there as well. Since I was below the threshold, I ended up losing way more than I needed to with both of these hands.
Things to note about the graph:
- The Y axis is not physical energy (tired or not tired), it's not money or stack size or buy-ins so far. It's the imaginary pool of "energy" that I spend on each loss/bad beat/annoyance, and gain with every pot I win or thing that makes me happy at the table.
- The amount of energy I start with at the beginning of each session has to do with the state of mind I'm in when I enter that session.
- The "do stupid shit threshold" also has to do with the state of mind I'm in when I enter a session. When I'm feeling entitled to a win or I'm in a bad mood, it will be higher.
- The X axis is not time, or at least the energy doesn't increase/decrease at a steady state over time. Individual events make it drop or increase instantly.
- Events do not have to be related to poker at all. Maybe some asshole I hate won a big pot. Maybe the cocktail waitress messed up my drink order. Maybe the conversation at the table is pissing me off, or the lack of conversation and company at the table is upsetting me for some reason. It could be anything.
I think this happens to me quite often. Sometimes it's unpredictable, but sometimes I could predict it as well. I know when I'm getting frustrated.
I had a session the other week at Wynn. I was playing 1/3 and was waiting for a table change. My table SUCKED, it had a couple of good regulars there, and it was shorthanded. I was getting super tilted because I wanted to move really bad and I didn't really want to play with these guys. I think based on my follow-up play, I was already beneath the bad play threshold because I just knew I didn't want to play with these guys and I knew it was a bad idea to play with them.
Then I won a really big pot in a pretty ridiculous situation. These guys were raising a lot preflop. I raise K-Q on the button. One of these guys (probably the best guy at the table) 3-bets me. I think, he's probably going to do this a lot and he probably thinks my range is wide because I'm on the button, so I call. Granted, I don't really know what his perception is of me, and I have only played with him a small number of times. The "information" I'm basing this on is that this guy seems to play pretty aggressive and smart, I see him winning a lot, and he hangs out with these other regulars that clearly play for a living (ie. are 24 years old, share an apartment, and grind out rent/party money playing 1/3 and 2/5). I think I made it 15 or 18 preflop, he made it 45, and I called.
So I call with my K-Q. Flop comes something like 9-9-2 with 2 diamonds. He leads out. I think "that's a good board to c-bet" although I know nothing about this guy's true c-bet frequencies. So I think "he's probably going to c-bet this board 100% of the time" and I call. Like I have no choice but to call. He bet 60 and I called.
Turn is a diamond, like the 7 of diamonds. It gave me a diamond draw. And he checks. Now I bet out 75. Not a bad idea to bet, but the pot is huge compared to my bet. So he calls me. I should have bet like 130 or something. But of course I didn't think it through at all, I just bet and he called.
River is the king. Bang. He checks. I figure I probably have the best hand now. I shove the rest of my stack, 250 or so. He tanks for a little while and folds. Yay, I won a big pot.
But I still KNOW I got myself into huge trouble in that hand, I should have never played it in the first place, and I NEED TO GET OFF THIS FUCKING TABLE!!!! My energy level may have even dropped with that hand. Even though I won, I just played it ridiculously and got super lucky. Guy was probably calling me with like 4-4 or something and I was just lucky to hit.
So I'm still below the threshold. Then I pick up Q-Q in the blind. Few limps, guy raises, I CALL (WHYYYYYYYY) and others call. Flop something like 8-3-3, I check to him, he checks. Turn 10. I check to him again (still 5 way pot). He bets something like 35 or 40. Next guy calls. I raise to 150. Raiser calls, other guy folds. River is a blank. I shove for $350 or $400. He insta-calls. I say "You got it" and show the Q-Q, and he says "yeah I do" and shows the 10-10. I go home stuck $500 or so. Super pissed off and hating life.
Now, why did this happen? My play was terrible on all streets. Should have reraised preflop and normally would. But I was already in this tilt zone where I just couldn't function. Then after he calls my raise on the turn, what could he POSSIBLY have... even J-J is folding there, plus J-J would bet the flop, oh, I'd say 8 billion percent of the time. And that's the only hand I realistically can beat after I check-raise that flop. Sigh. So fucking stupid.
What is the point of this ridiculously long rant?
I need to control my tilt better. I need to play less frequently, and with better intentions and higher quality play. If I'm not in the mood to play, I should not play. If I'm not in the mood to play, maybe I should study. I can read, I can write this blog, I can deal out two hands on the poker table upstairs and think about how I would play them on certain board textures and think about different options on each street.
I don't want to get into an even more giant rant, but regarding studying, I do not study enough. Well, you could say I don't study AT ALL. I used to study a lot. Granted, it was at lunch every day, but at least I was doing it. How often now, if I have the option to play poker or study poker, do I study? I think I do it about zero percent of the time. I was listening to a podcast (The Tournament Poker Edge - AWESOME podcast) where they had Daryl Jace on. Apparently this guy dropped out of school in the 7th grade and he has been playing online poker ever since. He played it obsessively, all day nonstop. But he also studied a LOT. And he said that a lot of the growth in his game was spent away from the table, thinking about hands, thinking about crazy ways to play hands or contemplating different ways to play. He said that he studied about 14-16 hours a week. A WEEK!!!! When I was "playing for a living" *groan* I think I probably played 120-150 hours per week max. And studied about zero hours per week. And now look at me - on the rail, working for the man, game has not improved substantially in the 7 years since then. That is a pretty sad state of affairs.
This blog was more just a release than anything else. But what I should do is spend more time analyzing hands. On the TPE podcast I mentioned above, they go into DEEP analysis of poker hands, on EVERY street. They contemplate each option at each street, even if it initially seems ridiculous. Talk about bet sizing. Talk about what the opponent's range is. I need to do more of that.
I could go play tonight. But I'm going to go outside and run, hopefully run at least 6 miles. Will I play tomorrow? Maybe. But I also need to spend some time studying. Maybe when I get home tonight I can think of a recent hand I played and go into seriously deep analysis on it. Or think about some other poker concept.
My blogs might get pretty abstract if I decide to stop just dumping money and playing poker robotically in my 2003 poker style, and start trying to ACTUALLY improve and think about the game. If that happens, I apologize. But I hope you will stick through it with me on the journey to better poker.
I mean honestly, my poker career/evolution could not be going any slower. I am basically making zero money playing. My bankroll has been stagnant and over the last 8 months I'm up about $2500. But I was up $2500 in a week at one point. It's just going nowhere, and that is because my game and my poker abilities are also going nowhere. I've put in no work and expect to get paid for that. That makes no sense.
Thanks for reading. Please contribute any comments you have below, I'd love to hear them.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Ultimate fail
Screenshot shows me involved (or dealt in) to the 970,000th hand at Ultimate Poker. I folded QJhh, would have flopped the world and turned the nuts, and won $200 in bonuses (plus a giant pot, probably). Sigh. Milestone hand.
Played a little more tonight, lost over $100. AK vs 34, flop 25Q, turn 7, river ace, guy check raises me all in. It's hard to fold when you are playing 50bb deep. Sucks.
Overall I'm down $12 on Ultimate. It's fun, but I wish I was doing better. What can you do. Next week I'm going to have a lot of time on my hands and I'll be able to play a ton. Looking forward to it. I hope I can put together some wins.
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