You can take into account that I was drunk while playing these hands, so my decisions may not have been 100% logical. But I figured I could go back now and do some analysis on these hands to look at what I did and what the optimal play might have been on these hands.
Hand 1 : First hand when I sat down at the table. I bought in for $300. My wife and I could have waited 1 hand and got in for free. However, she decided to buy the button, and I decided to straddle her buying the button. I don't even think that is possible, but they let me do it, and I had to buy the button next hand. :-)
Lady in middle position opens for $20. I've seen her before - middle aged lady, probably playing somewhat tight. She has probably $250. One guy calls in late position, maybe on the button. My wife calls. I look down at A-J. I raise it to $85. Everyone folds, I win. Maybe I'm oversimplifying here, but this seems like a pretty good play.
I think the lady might be raising like AQ+, AJs+, 88+. Maybe looser than that, but let's say that's what she is raising with. 5.88% of hands. That is a REALLY tight range when I look at it percentage-wise. So she might even be opening wider, in fact she probably is, but let's say she is raising only this.
What are the others calling with? It's a 1/3 game and their ranges would be really wide, with a ton of speculative hands. Probably 22-TT, any 2 suited broadway, any suited connector, probably would call instead of raise with AQ. I'm guessing the first person would typically reraise with AK or AA-JJ, but maybe not. Probably AA/KK, maybe not the others. And my wife is getting a decent price so her range is super wide.
I think that the two callers are going to have a SUPER hard time calling my raise, so I'll just assume they basically can never call it (unless the first lady calls). What can she call me with though? She will probably only proceed with AK+, QQ+. I think with pocket jacks she would probably just fold. Even AK she might fold, but let's say she'll call. That is 2.56% of hands.
Actually I just remembered, I have an ace. So that takes away from a lot of combos of AA, AK she can have. I removed those and now she is down to 2.19%. That is a substantial difference, like 15% less combos just with that one ace.
So in the pot was $66 before my bet. I put in $85 to win $66. How often do I have to get people to fold to immediately be profitable?
I don't generally do this kind of math. Let's see. I guess to determine how often I have to win to be immediately profitable, I have to assume that any time they don't fold, I lose. Or I think that works anyway. So it would be something like:
(66 * everyoneFoldsPct) = (-85 * (1 - everyoneFoldsPct))
Is that breakeven? Let's see what that works out to:
85/19. 4.47. What the fuck does that mean? Damn it. I clearly don't know how to do math.
Well, OK, I don't understand how to do the breakeven math. But if my assumptions above are true, she raised with 5.88% of hands, and will call or reraise with 2.19% of hands. So she will call or reraise 37% of the time.
66 * .621 + (-85 * .379) = 10.13
So if my calculations are correct, my move was worth $10.13. Not bad! I think those assumptions are reasonable overall.
Hand 2 : Some guy straddles for 6. There are about 5 limpers. I decide to raise to $40 with 4-2 offsuit. One of the limpers goes all in for $67 more. It folds back to me and I am last to act. Call or fold?
This one was interesting. I thought it would be pretty tough for most people to call a big raise after limping. So I tried to steal with 4-2 offsuit. Granted, this is probably not necessary. But I did it. And again, I was drinking a lot at the time.
So let's say 5 people limped. That's $30 in the pot, plus $6 for the blind. I put in $40, bringing the pot up to $76. Now he goes all-in for $67 more. Call the $40, so the pot is now $116. And put in the additional $67, so the pot is $183. If you want to get technical you can take out the rake (which will be taken out if I call) bringing the pot to $179. And I have to call $67.
I have to win 37% of the time to break even. I called, figuring that if he has two overcards I am getting the right price. But let's see what his range could be and what my equity is.
Even vs AK, I only have 34.1% equity. So it's close but a loser. If I just say any two suited broadway, AJ+, KQ, it's about the same - 33.5% equity. And if I add in 99-55 (assuming he would have open-raised with tens or better, and he might fold 44-22), I'm way worse - 28.3%. So that was not a good call.
Or was it? I flopped a 2, and BOOM, 2 on the turn. Ship it all day. :-) At the time I actually thought this was the right play, so I'm glad I did the research.
Getting tired of this poker talk, so I'm off to bed. See ya!
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