Friday, August 15, 2014

Some work I'm doing

So I figured it made sense to do some work on paper to just study and improve things like narrowing down ranges, working on combinatorics, and so on.  I decided to write down a couple hands that I can work with later, and some questions related to the hands.  Here's my first hand and some of the questions I wrote down for it.  I just thought of a common situation (AK utg) and generated an interesting random flop with PokerCruncher.
I have AcKd under the gun and raise to $20.  1 caller in middle position and the button calls.  Flop comes As8s8h.  I bet out $45 and the button calls.  
  • Range for button?  What range am I representing?
Turn is the 5 of diamonds.  I bet out $110.  
  • How much was in the pot?  What pot odds am I giving my opponent?  What am I trying to accomplish with this bet?  What range am I representing here?
  • If my opponent calls, what range am I putting him on?  What is my plan on the river if these cards hit: 4s, Jh, 5h, Kc?
  • If my opponent min-raises the turn, what range am I putting him on?  What do I do, and what is my plan on the river?

I started working on this, and it's really complicated.  Here is the start of my thought process:

Range for button - the button could call preflop with any suited ace, two cards 10+, any suited connector, any pair, 1 gap suited connectors.  AA is unlikely (probably would reraise) but I think you can’t take it out of his range.  On the flop he could be calling with sets/quads, trips, an ace, a boat with A8s, any flush draw.  

- Sub-question: what percentage of his preflop range is he continuing with?

Preflop range has how many hands?  
- All suited aces do not have a flush draw.  12 combos of Axcc and Axdd.  11 combos of Axhh.  
- Two cards 10+ (still working on this)

Even just that first question : "what is his range?"  is so complex.  Also my initial analysis of the suited aces combos is incorrect.  I forgot to factor in the Ac and Kd I'm holding.  

Sometimes things like this can seem overwhelming.  These appear (on the surface) to be simple questions and when I wrote them down, I thought I could probably plow through them pretty fast and the limiting factor would be the number of questions and situations I have to analyze.  However, that is not the case.  Even a supposedly simple situation is very complicated when you dig in.

Is it worth it?  I'd love to see any thoughts posted as a comment.  

Personally I think this is beneficial.  I'm honestly not sure what effect this type of practice / analysis will have on my poker game.  Today, I feel somewhat helpless and overwhelmed by the potential of going through these exercises.  They take a long time.  It's hard work thinking through everything.  I know that there is not a time in the foreseeable future where I could apply this in realtime at the table.  So it's easy to want to give up.  This is also a reason that I think it's easy for people (myself included) to simply say, forget practice and training.  I'll just play and get my training in at the table.  If I play a ton and try to play well, good things will happen.

I think this type of training/practice is something you simply can not get at the table.  You don't have time to dig deep.  You don't have time to come up with an answer to a tough poker question and dig all the way in and analyze it.  This is stuff that simply does have to be done off the table.  And someday, if I do enough of these, it will come back as a sharper poker mind at the table.

I just need to hang in there.  The road is long.  But I can do it.  Consistent progress, not only with time at the table but also off the table.  I recognized this as one of my big weaknesses and I read it a couple times per session in my warmup routine and on breaks.  I wrote : "I used to study poker a lot early in my career, and I don’t study anywhere near as much anymore." This is absolutely true.  I can not let this happen to me again.  I need to put the hours in and study, as difficult as it may seem.  Also, as low of a payoff as it seems to provide in the short term.  These are things that will make me the sick poker player I need to be in a year.  Fuck this week and next week, and next month.  Fuck the money I'm making or losing right now.  I need to play.  I need to study.  

I need to be the best poker player I can be and take the quickest route there.  Mentally it's tough to deal with, because the quickest route there is deceptive.  The apparently quickest route is a straight line, taking the highway there.  Playing 2/5, win money, play 5/10, win more money, play 10/20, and so on.  However, that is a classic poker mistake.  It's one I've made in the past and I can not repeat it.  I have time and time again put playing (and making money) above all other things.  This has lead to burnout and tilt, and overall losing WAY more money than I could have made if I took the more systematic, slower approach.  

I believe in my ability and natural talents.  I can do it.  I just need to be diligent and never give up.

No comments:

Post a Comment