I have AcKd under the gun and raise to $20. 1 caller in middle position and the button calls. Flop comes As8s8h. I bet out $45 and the button calls.
Turn is the 5 of diamonds. I bet out $110.
- Range for button? What range am I representing?
- How much was in the pot? What pot odds am I giving my opponent? What am I trying to accomplish with this bet? What range am I representing here?
- If my opponent calls, what range am I putting him on? What is my plan on the river if these cards hit: 4s, Jh, 5h, Kc?
- If my opponent min-raises the turn, what range am I putting him on? What do I do, and what is my plan on the river?
I started working on this, and it's really complicated. Here is the start of my thought process:
Range for button - the button could call preflop with any suited ace, two cards 10+, any suited connector, any pair, 1 gap suited connectors. AA is unlikely (probably would reraise) but I think you can’t take it out of his range. On the flop he could be calling with sets/quads, trips, an ace, a boat with A8s, any flush draw.
- Sub-question: what percentage of his preflop range is he continuing with?
Preflop range has how many hands?
- All suited aces do not have a flush draw. 12 combos of Axcc and Axdd. 11 combos of Axhh.
- Two cards 10+ (still working on this)
Even just that first question : "what is his range?" is so complex. Also my initial analysis of the suited aces combos is incorrect. I forgot to factor in the Ac and Kd I'm holding.
Sometimes things like this can seem overwhelming. These appear (on the surface) to be simple questions and when I wrote them down, I thought I could probably plow through them pretty fast and the limiting factor would be the number of questions and situations I have to analyze. However, that is not the case. Even a supposedly simple situation is very complicated when you dig in.
Is it worth it? I'd love to see any thoughts posted as a comment.
Personally I think this is beneficial. I'm honestly not sure what effect this type of practice / analysis will have on my poker game. Today, I feel somewhat helpless and overwhelmed by the potential of going through these exercises. They take a long time. It's hard work thinking through everything. I know that there is not a time in the foreseeable future where I could apply this in realtime at the table. So it's easy to want to give up. This is also a reason that I think it's easy for people (myself included) to simply say, forget practice and training. I'll just play and get my training in at the table. If I play a ton and try to play well, good things will happen.
I think this type of training/practice is something you simply can not get at the table. You don't have time to dig deep. You don't have time to come up with an answer to a tough poker question and dig all the way in and analyze it. This is stuff that simply does have to be done off the table. And someday, if I do enough of these, it will come back as a sharper poker mind at the table.
I just need to hang in there. The road is long. But I can do it. Consistent progress, not only with time at the table but also off the table. I recognized this as one of my big weaknesses and I read it a couple times per session in my warmup routine and on breaks. I wrote : "I used to study poker a lot early in my career, and I don’t study anywhere near as much anymore." This is absolutely true. I can not let this happen to me again. I need to put the hours in and study, as difficult as it may seem. Also, as low of a payoff as it seems to provide in the short term. These are things that will make me the sick poker player I need to be in a year. Fuck this week and next week, and next month. Fuck the money I'm making or losing right now. I need to play. I need to study.
I need to be the best poker player I can be and take the quickest route there. Mentally it's tough to deal with, because the quickest route there is deceptive. The apparently quickest route is a straight line, taking the highway there. Playing 2/5, win money, play 5/10, win more money, play 10/20, and so on. However, that is a classic poker mistake. It's one I've made in the past and I can not repeat it. I have time and time again put playing (and making money) above all other things. This has lead to burnout and tilt, and overall losing WAY more money than I could have made if I took the more systematic, slower approach.
I believe in my ability and natural talents. I can do it. I just need to be diligent and never give up.
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